Analysis and opinions on the future of California agriculture are varied, to say the least, ranging from the apocalyptic — the end is near — to the cautiously optimistic, which is where a new forecast and analysis by respected economist Dr. Daniel Sumner falls.

Sumner, the Frank H. Buck Distinguished Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis and the Director of the University of California Agricultural Issues Center, recently put on his economic modeling hat and took out his crystal ball at the California State Board of Food and Agricultural’s (CDFA) Winter Meeting, to forecast the state of agriculture in California in 2050, 30 years from now.

Sumner said he believes that net farm income in California will continue to grow, even though it may experience ups and downs, and that growth specifics will hinge on the management of five key cost factors. Those factors are:

Labor
Because of the relatively high cost of labor in California, there is a crucial need for innovation to offset that disadvantage, Sumner said. 

“Fruit and vegetable commodities that remain highly labor intensive will face challenges, although guest workers and innovation may provide some relief,” he said, adding, “Commodities that can cost-effectively manage labor intensity will be more competitive.”

Water
Drought, climate change and groundwater regulation are likely to mean a decrease in water available for irrigation, according to Sumner. 

“By 2050 effective regulations may minimize the loss of agricultural productivity and lead to a more economically sustainable water system with moderate investment in infrastructure to store and move water. Regulatory change must include innovative policy and rules to secure property rights and markets to allow for water transfers and groundwater recharge,” he said.

Climate Change
The changing climate is likely to drive changes in crop production, especially shifting locations and planting crops or varieties better suited to new climate conditions, Sumner said. “We may also expect shifts in locations of crops globally by 2050, so California farms may face new competition for some traditional crops and may switch to crops that had been grown previously in warmer areas,” he said. We can also expect different pest pressures too. Nonetheless, no unmanageable changes seem to be likely by 2050, given the close attention of researchers and growers,” he added.

Regulations
California regulations raise costs of agricultural production in the state relative to some competitors, especially competitors in the rest of the United States and in developing countries, Sumner said. As a solution, “California agriculture may mitigate some costs of regulations, in areas like technology or land prices that fall below where they would otherwise be to accommodate higher production costs,” he added.

Research and Development 
Globally, farm productivity is increasingly reliant on private-sector R&D, but the role of public research and extension remains vital in many situations, Sumner stressed. 

“California has a long history of having the world’s top public agricultural research enterprise [the University of California system], which has delivered tangible benefits to California producers and consumers. Given the challenges ahead, including challenges to adapt to climate change and regulations, renewed investment seems vital, but the prognosis is uncertain at best. This may mean that more of the R&D effort will shift to private funding and industries unwilling to support such effort will fall behind. The good news is that California is well suited to embrace food and farm trends and anticipate complex customer demands,” he said.

According to Sumner, these five factors will affect all industries and regions to varying degrees and will drive the supply side of California agricultural adjustments between now and 2050. Further, he said he believes that overall demand for California Ag products will remain strong as long as income growth continues and consumers continue to make specific choices based on diet and on-farm practices.  

Sumner’s cautiously optimistic forecast is good news for farmers and other agriculturists in California. But his forecast should also be viewed as a reminder that unless the key issues he outlines are seriously addressed in the public policy arenas of Sacramento and Washington DC, things might not turn out as well as predicted for the future of California agriculture and its numerous stakeholders.

For example, California needs more water storage for agriculture. This needs to be resolved soon. Kicking the can down the road when it comes to water policy and California agriculture can’t continue. 

Additionally, there’s a shortage of farm labor in California. Some sort of guest worker program needs to be enacted on the federal level, as does comprehensive immigration reform to include a provision for agriculture, such as perhaps giving citizenship to undocumented people who’ve been working continuously in farm-related jobs for a given period of years. Crops need to be picked and robots aren’t ready to take the job over just yet when it comes to most crops.

The fact 2020 is an election year nationally and statewide offers California agriculture a potential  opportunity to finally resolve key issues like water, labor and more because elected officials and the public will be paying more and closer attention to such things than they do in non-election years.

In order to do so though the Golden State’s agriculture interests will need to be better organized than they currently are. Also key is to create a better message highlighting the vital role Agriculture plays in the state’s economy and in the Caifornia’s overall cultural landscape. 

The future is bright for California agriculture. No other state comes close to matching the Golden State when it comes to farming. California’s 77,500 farms produce more than 400 commodities and two-thirds of the nation’s fruits and nuts, according to data from USDA and CDFA.

California agriculture and its related industries account for 6.4% of the state’s economy, supports more than 1.5 million jobs, and generates $333 billion in sales, according to a recent study by the California Community Colleges Centers of Excellence for Labor Market Research, the California Economic Summit and the University of California’s Division of Agriculture and Natural

Ensuring that California agriculture remains on track over the next 30 years as Sumner predicts it will is going to require telling its story and winning in the public policy arena, along with making strides in the adaptation of technology from the lab to the farm, working on climate change solutions, keeping regulations sane and continuing to invest in public as well as private research. 

When it comes to agriculture, California remains the great exception. There’s no reason it can’t continue to be just that in 2050.