The U.S. poultry and egg sector has long been a pillar of the nation’s agricultural economy, producing billions of pounds of poultry and millions of eggs annually.
The COVID-19 pandemic challenged and disrupted the industry with labor shortages, processing plant closures, and shifts in consumer demand, leading to short-term volatility. Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) also created disruption, sharply reducing the U.S. poultry and egg-laying flock in 2022 and 2023.
However, with growing consumer preferences for lean protein, increasing demand in export markets, and the sector’s resilience through technological innovation, the long-term outlook for the U.S. poultry and egg industries looks bright, based on numerous indicators and USDA (U.S. Department of Food & Agriculture) data and projections.
According to the USDA’s latest report, the U.S. poultry industry is among the largest globally, producing approximately 46 billion pounds of chicken and 7.3 billion pounds of turkey in 2023.
Poultry is the most consumed animal protein in the United States. Broiler and turkey meat accounted for about 46% of all red meat and poultry consumption by volume in 2023, with cash receipts of over $50 billion. In addition, the United States is the world’s second largest exporter of chicken behind Brazil.
The egg sector is similarly robust, with production estimated at 100 billion eggs annually, driven by both table eggs for consumption and eggs used in processed foods. The poultry sector has consistently outpaced other meat sectors in terms of production and consumption growth, making it a key player in the U.S. and global markets.
The USDA’s 2023 Agricultural Projections Report highlights the long-term growth expected in these industries, forecasting increases in both domestic demand and export opportunities. As noted previously, poultry, particularly chicken, is now the leading meat protein in the U.S., surpassing beef and pork. The USDA attributes this to chicken’s relative affordability, versatility, and perception as a healthier protein choice.
Post-Pandemic Recovery
Like many industries, poultry and egg producers faced unprecedented challenges and disruptions during the pandemic. Labor shortages, resulting from worker illnesses and enhanced safety protocols, forced several processing plants to close or operate at reduced capacity. This caused
supply chain bottlenecks and temporary price spikes, with chicken prices climbing by as much as 50% in some regions in 2021.
Despite these setbacks, the industry has shown remarkable resilience. By mid-2022, production levels began to stabilize as the workforce returned and processing plants resumed normal operations. The USDA’s latest report reveals that broiler production is projected to increase by 1.7% annually over the next decade, while egg production is expected to grow by 1.4% per year, signaling a strong recovery trajectory.
Technology as a Catalyst for Recovery
One of the most significant factors contributing to the sector’s recovery is technological innovation. Producers have increasingly embraced automation to overcome labor shortages and improve efficiency in poultry processing plants. Automated equipment for slaughtering, cutting, and packaging has enabled producers to ramp up production despite fewer workers on the floor. The USDA notes that advancements in genetics and nutrition have also improved poultry growth rates and feed conversion efficiency, reducing production costs.
Additionally, technological improvements in biosecurity measures have played a key role in safeguarding flocks from disease outbreaks, which pose a continual threat to the poultry and egg industries. The USDA’s 2023 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook highlights the success of vaccination programs and enhanced surveillance systems in controlling the spread of avian influenza (also known as bird flu), one of the most serious disease risks faced by poultry producers. The industry has implemented stricter biosecurity protocols in response to outbreaks, which significantly mitigated losses during the most recent incidents.
Domestic Market: Consumer Trends and Preferences
In the domestic market, consumer preferences have shifted significantly in recent years. Chicken has cemented its place as the most widely consumed meat in the U.S., with per capita consumption reaching a record 98 pounds per person in 2023, according to USDA data. This growing preference for poultry is linked to health trends, as consumers seek leaner protein options and reduce red meat intake. As chicken is generally perceived as a healthier choice, its popularity continues to rise, buoyed by its affordability relative to other proteins like beef and pork.
Eggs, too, have enjoyed a resurgence in demand. The USDA’s 2023 data reports that per capita egg consumption has steadily increased to around 290 eggs per person annually, driven by interest in high-protein diets and the versatility of eggs as a food product. Moreover, growing demand for specialty eggs – such as cage-free, organic, and omega-3 enriched eggs – reflects changing consumer attitudes towards animal welfare and sustainable food choices. The shift towards these premium products presents new opportunities for egg producers to capture value from conscientious consumers willing to pay higher prices for ethically produced eggs.
Export Growth: A Boon for U.S. Producers
While domestic demand remains robust, export markets offer some of the greatest opportunities for growth in the U.S. poultry and egg sectors. The USDA’s most recent Long-Term Agricultural Projections report predicts that U.S. poultry exports will increase by 2.2% annually, driven by rising global demand for affordable protein sources. The U.S. is already one of the world’s leading poultry exporters, with key markets in Mexico, China, Canada, and Japan.
Mexico continues to be the top destination for U.S. poultry exports, with shipments valued at over $1.3 billion in 2022, according to USDA data. Similarly, U.S. exports of chicken and turkey to China have surged in recent years following the lifting of trade restrictions, and the USDA projects that China will remain a crucial market for U.S. poultry products over the next decade.
Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East present additional growth opportunities for U.S. poultry producers. As incomes rise and populations grow in these regions, demand for affordable sources of protein is expected to soar. The U.S. poultry industry, with its competitive pricing and high production capacity, is well-positioned to meet this rising demand.
However, export growth is not without challenges. Trade disputes, fluctuating tariffs, and non-tariff barriers such as sanitary and phytosanitary regulations can disrupt access to key markets. The USDA says that geopolitical tensions, particularly with China, could impact the stability of poultry exports in the future. Nonetheless, the agency remains optimistic that U.S. producers will continue to expand their market presence abroad.
Sustainability and Environmental Concerns
As the U.S. poultry and egg industries look toward long-term growth, sustainability and environmental impact are increasingly important considerations. The sector has faced criticism for its resource-intensive nature, particularly in terms of water and land use, as well as its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. According to the USDA, poultry production is responsible for an estimated 8% of total U.S. agricultural emissions.
To address these concerns, producers are adopting more sustainable practices, including improving feed efficiency, utilizing renewable energy sources, and enhancing manure management to reduce environmental footprints. The USDA’s most recent Sustainability Initiatives Report highlights efforts to reduce water and energy consumption across the poultry supply chain. Many producers are also exploring regenerative agriculture practices, which aim to restore soil health and reduce the environmental impact of feed crop production.
The shift towards cage-free egg production, driven by both consumer demand and regulatory changes in states like California and Massachusetts, also reflects the industry’s move towards more sustainable and ethical production systems. While the transition to cage-free systems presents
challenges in terms of infrastructure costs, the long-term benefits include improved animal welfare and alignment with evolving consumer preferences.
Turkey Production: Thanksgiving 2024 Outlook
The poultry segment is in the spotlight in November because turkey is the default center-of-the-plate protein for the majority of Thanksgiving Day meals in American households.
Overall, the availability of whole turkeys is expected to be fairly strong this year, with ample supplies of frozen birds, according to the USDA. This is a result of the turkey industry recovering from the avian influenza outbreak in 2022, which had severely impacted production. By 2023, the number of bird flu cases had dropped significantly, helping turkey production stabilize. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, ensuring good availability of frozen turkeys for the holiday season​.
As for prices, they are projected to remain lower than in previous years. The average price per pound of frozen turkey was around $1.27 in 2023, which marked a 22% drop from 2022 prices, and similar price trends are expected for 2024. The decrease in prices is due to the combination of reduced flu cases, increased turkey production, and steady demand​, according to the Farm Bureau.
Fresh turkeys though may be slightly more expensive or harder to find, as processing typically happens weeks before Thanksgiving, and 2024 avian flu outbreaks could affect the supply of fresh birds​, particularly the closer it gets to Thanksgiving Day.
A Bright Future for U.S. Poultry and Egg Producers
The U.S. poultry and egg industries have weathered significant challenges in recent years, from the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic to ongoing environmental and regulatory pressures. However, USDA data and other indicators underscore a strong recovery, with long-term growth projections buoyed by domestic and global demand for affordable, lean protein sources.
Technological innovation, biosecurity advancements, deamn-driven domestic sales growth and the expansion of export markets are key drivers of this projected growth. As producers continue to adapt to consumer trends and invest in sustainability, the U.S. poultry and egg sectors are poised for continued success and added growth in the coming years and decades. With steady increases in production, consumption, and exports, the future of the U.S. poultry and egg industries looks promising and bright.
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agrifood industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to develop their own branded food products. You can contact him at: victormartino415@gmail.com.
