Tomatoes have become more American than apple pie when it comes to what Americans eat and enjoy regularly.
The average American eats about 31 pounds of tomatoes each year, according to the USDA, with three-fourths of their annual tomato consumption coming from processing tomatoes, which are found in salsa, ketchup, pasta dishes and pizza.
California leads the world in the production of processing tomatoes, responsible for about 35% of the globe’s total output. Here at home, California accounts for a whopping 90% of total U.S. processing tomato production.
California also is experiencing its worst drought in 1,200 years, which is having a major impact on the world’s preeminent processing tomato-growing and production region.
The California processing tomato crop has been below its most-recent production peak of 14.4 million tones in 2015 for the past six years, according to the USDA, and not only is 2022 expected to continue that trend but many experts think this year’s harvest, which is currently underway, might be below last year’s volume. It’s also unlikely to come close to meeting the USDA’s 2022 crop estimate of 11.7 million tons.
Demand for processing tomatoes is up too. According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, California tomato processors reported contracts for 12.2 million tons of tomatoes for 2022, a 10% increase in demand compared to 2021.
This increase in demand and decrease in production output due primarily to the drought also comes at a time when the U.S. is experiencing its highest rate of food inflation in 43 years.
According to the labor department’s most recent monthly Consumer Price Index Report (CPI), food-at-home (food bought at grocery stores and prepared at home) was up 13.1% for the one-year period ending July 2022. Food-away-from-home (food consumed at restaurants and other foodservice venues) had a year-over-year increase of 7.6%.
The price of processing tomato-based products like ketchup, salsa and pasta sauce, along with canned tomatoes and tomato paste, have increased by even more – on average by about 17% over the last year – and because of the drought in California, where 90% of all processing tomatoes in the U.S. are produced, prices for these goods will continue to go up for consumers.
There’s widespread concern on the farm and in the California processing tomato industry about the multi-year decrease in yields – and particularly about this year’s crop. The processing tomato season runs until October in California.
For example, Mike Montna, President and CEO of the California Tomato Growers Association, told Bloomberg News in mid-August that the industry is getting to the point where there’s not enough inventory to keep fulfilling market demand.
“It’s real tough to grow a tomato crop right now,” Montna told Bloomberg. “On one side you have the drought impacting costs because you don’t have enough water to grow all your acres, and then you have the farm inflation side of it with fuel and fertilizer costs shooting up.”
The bottom line is that due to the severe drought and California’s restrictions on groundwater use for irrigation, not enough acres of processing tomatoes were planted this year to meet demand.
Tomatoes are a $1.3 billion dollar crop in California, according to the California Department of Agriculture, with processing tomatoes accounting for the majority of that dollar amount.
The majority of tomatoes are grown in the Central and Sacramento valleys. Fresno County in the Central Valley is the top-producing county, with about 3.62 million tons produced, followed by Yolo County in the Sacramento region, and Kings, Merced and San Joaquin counties.
The largest tomato processor in the world, The Morningstar Company, which is headquartered in Woodland in Yolo County, also has its three state-of-the-art tomato processing plants in the Central Valley and Sacramento region.
Morningstar supplies over 40% of national markets with ingredient tomato paste and diced tomatoes and provides bulk-ingredient products to food manufacturers, along with can and pouch ingredients and finished products to the food service and retail trade. If you buy a can of diced tomatoes under a grocer’s own or private label brand, the odds are pretty high that it was packed in a Morningstar plant and that the processing tomatoes were grown in the Central Valley or Yolo County.
It’s hot and dry in the Central Valley and Yolo County this summer and there’s very little tomato-growers and processors can do right now but hope for rain.
Meanwhile, consumers can expect to continue paying more for processing tomato-based foods at restaurants and for products like canned tomatoes, pasta sauce and ketchup at the grocery store.
Additionally, because California is the major food-producing state in the U.S. and grows over 400 different crops, and because the drought isn’t going to end soon, consumers should expect to continue paying more money for many food products, not only those containing processing tomatoes, because when it comes to food and food prices, as California goes, so to a very significant degree goes the price of food at grocery stores and restaurants.
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agri-food industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to sell directly to consumers or develop their own branded food products. Contact: victormartino415@gmail.com.
