As we close out 2022 and prepare for the new year, the publisher of My Job Depends on Ag Magazine asked me to gaze into my crystal ball and offer a few predictions for food and farming in 2023.
My “Big 5” predictions for 2023. We’ll check back in December 2023 and see how I did.
Pistachios Are The New Almonds
Pistachio nuts are the new almonds.
Almonds have been the “it nut” for the last two decades, resulting in thousands of new acres of almond trees being planted in California’s Central Valley, which produces the majority of almonds grown in the U.S.
Almond milk, almond butter and scores of other almond-based food and beverage products too have gained in popularity and line grocery store shelves. Americans love almonds.
Almonds and their popularity as a snack nut, food ingredient and crop aren’t going away in 2023, but Americans are increasingly falling in love with pistachio nuts, particularly as a snack.
Like almonds, pistachios also happen to be grown primarily in California’s Central Valley. They’ve grown so much in popularity over the last couple years that growers have been having a hard time producing enough of them to meet consumer demand.
Look for 2023 to be the “Year of the Pistachio,” thanks in large part to all the value-added and flavored pistachio nut snack products on the market, with more on the way.
I also expect pistachios to be the key ingredient in more food products starting next year.
Will pistachio milk be the new almond and oat milk? Probably not. But you’ll start seeing brands of pistachio milk showing up in grocery stores in 2023. If it’s a nut, it can be milked, is the prevailing wisdom in the food and beverage industry today.
Drought And More Drought
On a more somber note, the drought that’s been causing havoc with agriculture in the west and elsewhere in the country will continue in 2023, even if this winter brings us heavy rain.
It’s a systemic not an acute problem, particularly in the west. For example, California, the largest agricultural-producing state in the nation, needs additional water storage for irrigation use, plain and simple.
Meanwhile, farmers will continue to adopt better water-saving technology and continue fallowing crop acreage, as they’ve had to do this year.
Drought is the most significant longer-term challenge when it comes to the cost of food in our country. Unless addressed, what’s been an era of affordable food since the 1950s, might be over. Our state and federal elected officials need to address drought and climate change in a real and meaningful way in 2023.
Ag Technology 4.0
Technology will play a more significant role in farming and in the business of agriculture in 2023 than has ever been the case before.
Drought, labor shortages and the increasing cost of labor, along with other challenges, make technology one of the few promising solutions available to agriculture, particularly in states like California.
Technological solutions in the areas of weeding, planting and harvesting, along with water conservation, top the list for farmers in terms of helping to meet escalating natural resource shortages and human labor needs and costs.
Additionally, expect new technological innovations from industry and academic institutions to surprise us all in 2023.
The Wilting Of Plant-Based Meat
For the last five years the mainstream media and others have argued that plant-based meat will disrupt meat as we know it. As we know it means animal meat.
But this year, sales of plant-based meat brands like Beyond Meat have wilted, while Americans have renewed their love for meat that comes from animals.
Real meat will be in next year and fake meat will be out.
Cattle ranchers and butchers will be very busy in the new year as consumers keep on eating animal meat and focus mostly on eating plants in the form of fruits, vegetables, cereals and other traditional offerings rather than in the form of meat analogues.
Chicken sales, for example, are on fire, despite the price at the grocery store having increased by double-digits over the last year. Wings are so popular that producers have been struggling to keep up with orders from distributors, retailers and restaurants.
Steaks too will be hot, both at home and at restaurants, in 2023.
Pork, particularly ribs and bacon, which are both hot-sellers despite higher prices at grocery stores, will be even hotter next year.
Being a carnivore is cool again.
The End Of Food Inflation
When it comes to food, farming and consumers, 2022 will go down as the year of skyrocketing food prices at both grocery stores and restaurants.
For example, the overall price of food is nearly 14 percent higher today than it was a year ago. The good news though is that over the last few months the rate of increase in food inflation has been lower than was the case for the first 9 months of the year.
Food inflation isn’t going away soon but I expect continued moderation into 2023, with the end of food inflation in mid-to-late 2023.
The U.S. economy though remains a wild card. Unemployment remains low and consumers continue buying – grocery retail sales were up in October 2022, for example – despite high food inflation.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in an attempt to eliminate inflation. This could put the country into recession, which in many ways would be far worse than inflation. But there’s nothing good about inflation, particularly when it comes to the cost of food, which is something Americans can’t live without.
On a positive note, the supply chain mess, which was the primary cause of food inflation, has improved and continues to improve. There’s been too much demand and not enough supply, which along with a few other factors have led to the highest food inflation in the U.S. since the late 1970’s.
Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. See you in 2023.
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agrifood industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to develop their own branded food products. You can contact him at: victormartino415@gmail.com.
