California’s citrus industry, a cornerstone of the state’s agricultural economy, has experienced dynamic changes driven by marketing and changing consumer preferences, climate variability and technological advances. As the largest citrus-producing state in the U.S., California produces a variety of citrus fruits, including oranges, lemons, mandarins and grapefruits, which dominate domestic and international markets. Understanding the key trends shaping this industry highlights its resilience and innovation, as well as the challenges and opportunities for future growth.
Popular Citrus Varieties in California
Over the past decade, California’s citrus industry has seen a significant shift in consumer demand.
Among the most notable trends is the surge in popularity of easy-peel mandarins. Varieties like “Cuties” (a marketing name for clementines and other seedless mandarins) and “Halos” have become household staples due to their convenience, sweetness, and seedless nature.
Mandarins now rival navel oranges as the most widely consumed fresh citrus in the U.S., reflecting changing consumer preferences for snackable and portable fruits, which is a trend reflected in a major shift in citrus acreage in California.
In the last decade, the state has seen a 13% decrease in navel orange acres planted and a 26% decrease in valencia acres, according to California Citrus Mutual, an industry trade association. The nonprofit trade association estimates that equates to between 25,00-28,000 acres. As valencia and navel orange acreage declines in the state, they’re being replaced by mandarins, which have increased by about 18,000 acres during that same time, according to California Citrus Mutual.
For now, navel oranges remain the top citrus variety grown in California, followed by the on-the-move mandarins. As of 2024, bearing acreage for navel oranges is reported to be about 109,461 acres. Navel oranges are valued for their seedless nature, excellent taste, and strong performance in both domestic and international markets. Mandarins are currently estimated to comprise about 70,000 acres.
Lemons have also witnessed growing demand, particularly driven by culinary trends emphasizing fresh flavors and health-conscious lifestyles. California accounts for approximately 90% of the nation’s lemon production, with varieties like Eureka and Lisbon leading the market. Lemons are increasingly sought for their use in beverages, cooking, and natural cleaning products.
Meanwhile, Valencia oranges, traditionally favored for juicing, have seen a more stable demand as fresh-squeezed juices remain a breakfast staple.
Grapefruit, on the other hand, has seen more modest growth, largely limited by its unique flavor profile and competition from sweeter alternatives.
Challenges for California Citrus Growers
Citrus growers in California face a number of challenges. Among the most significant challenges are:
Pests and Diseases
The threat of Huanglongbing (HLB), also known as citrus greening disease, remains one of the most pressing challenges for California citrus growers. Transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid, HLB devastates citrus trees, rendering fruit inedible and leading to tree death. While California has not experienced the widespread devastation seen in Florida, the state’s growers face ongoing battles to prevent the disease’s spread through stringent monitoring and quarantine measures.
Climate Change and Water Scarcity
California’s citrus production is highly sensitive to climate variability. Drought conditions, increasing temperatures, and erratic weather patterns have posed significant challenges for growers. Reduced water availability has forced farmers to invest in water-efficient irrigation technologies and prioritize high-value crops. Heat waves can also cause fruit sunburn and drop, reducing yield and marketability.
Labor Shortages
Agricultural labor shortages have long plagued California’s citrus industry. Rising labor costs and immigration policy uncertainties exacerbate the issue, pushing growers to explore mechanization and automation to mitigate labor reliance.
Market Competition
International competition from countries like Mexico, Spain, and South Africa continues to put pressure on California growers. These competitors often benefit from lower production costs, creating challenges for California citrus to remain price-competitive in export markets.
Opportunities in California Citrus Production
Despite these challenges, California’s citrus industry is well-positioned to capitalize on several opportunities. Among the key opportunities for growers and the industry include:
Innovation in Crop Management
Advances in agricultural technology, including precision irrigation, pest management systems, and drone-based monitoring, offer tools for growers to optimize production efficiency and reduce costs. Investments in breeding programs for HLB-resistant citrus varieties also hold promise for safeguarding the future of the industry.
Expanding Export Markets
California citrus enjoys a reputation for quality, and there is growing demand for premium fresh citrus in international markets, particularly in Asia. Strategic marketing efforts and trade agreements can help expand export opportunities for California growers.
California exports around 30% of its citrus to other countries, while the remaining 70% is sold domestically. The top export countries for California-grown citrus include South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, China and Australia.
The opportunity to grow exports exists but the citrus industry in California is currently most concerned about maintaining current export volume amid some fears that additional tariffs in 2025 promised by President-Elect Trump could result in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports from countries like China, which is at the top of the President-elect’s tariff increase agenda, like happened in his first term as president.
Consumer Trends Favoring Health
The rising awareness of the health benefits of citrus, including their high vitamin C content and antioxidant properties, aligns with consumer preferences for nutritious, immune-boosting foods. This trend creates an opportunity to market citrus as a vital component of a healthy lifestyle.
Organic Citrus Production
The organic produce market continues to grow, with consumers willing to pay a premium for organic options. California growers can leverage the state’s reputation for sustainable agriculture to expand organic citrus production and meet this demand.
The 2024-2025 California Citrus Crop Outlook
The California citrus harvest season generally begins in late November or December and runs through March of the following year. This year’s winter harvest (late 2024 to early 2025) is expected to be about average, according to California Citrus Mutual.
Overall, the outlook for California citrus production in 2025 remains cautiously optimistic. While challenges such as water scarcity and disease threats persist, the industry’s adaptability and commitment to innovation will likely drive continued growth. The shift towards higher-value crops like mandarins and organic varieties will play a pivotal role in maintaining profitability.
Weather conditions will remain a critical factor influencing the 2025 citrus crop. Projections suggest that water management will be increasingly vital, and growers who adopt efficient irrigation practices and diversify their water sources will be better positioned to withstand droughts.
On the pest and disease front, significant progress is anticipated in developing and deploying HLB-resistant citrus varieties. Research efforts and collaborative initiatives between growers, industry organizations, and researchers are expected to yield tangible solutions by 2025.
Export markets are likely to expand further, driven by rising demand in Asia and efforts to strengthen trade relationships. However, growers must remain vigilant about maintaining quality standards and meeting the regulatory requirements of different countries.
Finally, the continued popularity of mandarins, along with increased interest in health-focused and sustainably grown citrus, bodes well for California’s citrus industry. By aligning production practices with consumer preferences and leveraging technological advancements, the industry can navigate challenges and seize opportunities in the years ahead.
California’s citrus industry is a testament to the resilience and ingenuity of its growers. While they face formidable challenges, including pests, climate change, and market pressures, the opportunities for growth and innovation are equally compelling.
With careful planning, investment in technology and a focus on quality and sustainability, California’s citrus producers are poised to thrive in an evolving agricultural landscape. By 2025, the industry is expected to continue its leadership in meeting both domestic and global demand for fresh, flavorful citrus.
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agrifood industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to develop their own branded food products. You can contact him at: victormartino415@gmail.com.
