The outcome of the November 2024 presidential election, resulting in Donald Trump’s return to office, is poised to significantly influence the formulation and implementation of the upcoming Farm Bill.
The Farm Bill, typically renewed every five to six years, serves as the primary agricultural and food policy instrument of the federal government, encompassing a wide array of programs from commodity support to nutrition assistance.
The last Farm Bill was inked in 2018. A new one is long overdue.
Farm groups and other stakeholders lobbied hard for lawmakers to negotiate and produce a new Farm Bill in 2024 in order to give producers some certainty in the face of a declining overall agricultural economy but partisan differences between Democrats and Republicans prevented agreement on new legislation.
Instead, at the last minute in late December 2024 Congressional lawmakers approved a second extension of the 2018 Farm Bill.
Having kicked a new Farm Bill down the road last year, Congress now needs to produce one this year. Republicans will be in the driver’s seat in negotiations, having a majority in both houses of Congress, along with President Donald Trump in the White House. It’s a GOP majority trifecta. Democrats will have a say, but it will be limited compared to past years.
Traditionally the Farm Bill has been one of the most bipartisan bills produced by Congress, with Democrats and Republicans generally negotiating legislation that both parties ultimately have been in fairly solid agreement on.
But this year’s Farm Bill process and outcome could be very different than it has been in the past. President Trump is no ordinary president and appears to want to shake things up big time, including in food and farming policy. My bet is that the new Farm Bill will have President Trump’s imprint all over it because the Republican-majority in Congress is very focused on passing his legislative priorities and agenda across the board.
Leadership appointments and policy directions
President Trump’s selection of key officials for agricultural and related departments offers insight into the administration’s priorities and how they might shape a new Farm Bill.
The nomination of Brooke Rollins as Secretary of Agriculture is particularly noteworthy. Rollins previously led the Texas Public Policy Foundation, an organization that opposed ethanol mandates and farm subsidies. This background suggests a potential major shift in the Department of Agriculture’s stance on these issues, which could lead to policy changes affecting biofuel production and subsidy allocations. USDA has provided huge subsidies for ethanol for many years and general farm subsidies comprise a significant part of the Farm Bill and the way agriculture and government interact on the policy level in the U.S.
Rollins, who has worked closely with the president over the last few years as a co-founder of the Trump-endorsed America First Institute, also said in her Senate confirmation hearings in late January that she’s in full agreement with President Trump’s policy plans, including his promise to crack down on illegal immigration – around 40-50% of farmworkers in the U.S. are undocumented, according to a variety of sources – and his threats to impose new tariffs on key trading partner-nations like Canada, Mexico, China and others.
Rollins said both policies have the potential to hurt agriculture but added that she will do all she can to protect farmers and agribusinesses if the need arises.
During his first term, President Trump authorized tens of billions of dollars in direct financial aid to farmers and agribusinesses that were hurt by retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture exports that were the result of the tariffs he imposed on numerous nations. My analysis, based on statements the president and Rollins have made, is that he would do the same thing again in his second term as a way to protect farmers if the situation arises.
Additionally, the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services introduces another layer of complexity. Kennedy has expressed intentions to ban high fructose corn syrup and seed oils, a move that could disrupt markets for corn and other crops. Such major policy changes may necessitate major adjustments in the Farm Bill to address the economic impact on farmers and the agricultural sector. American agriculture, agribusiness and the processed food industry are in large part built on the production of corn and soybeans and their use as key ingredients. Past Farm Bills reflect this reality in a significant way.
Kennedy also has said he’d like to see a dramatic reduction in or the complete elimination of the use of pesticides in farming. This would be a radical change to conventional agriculture in the U.S. and would require changes to the Farm Bill unlike any we’ve seen in modern times. The use of chemical pesticides, fungicides and insecticides are central to modern conventional farming in the U.S. and elsewhere in the industrialized west. Many of Kennedy’s ideas appear to have the support of the President.
Rollins and Kennedy both need to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
Immigration policies and agricultural labor
The Trump administration’s approach to immigration is another critical factor. With discussions of mass deportations, there is growing concern among immigrant farmworkers, who constitute a significant portion of the agricultural labor force. Potential labor shortages could affect food production and prices, prompting the Farm Bill to incorporate measures that address labor stability and support for affected farming operations.
Economic policies and agricultural funding
Economic strategies under the Trump administration, including potential tariff implementations and adjustments to farm subsidies, are likely to influence the agricultural sector. For instance, proposed tariffs on imports from countries like China and Mexico could raise the cost of food and agricultural products. Moreover, changes in subsidy allocations, particularly a shift from mass-produced crops to fresh produce – President Trump has embraced the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement started by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – could alter the financial landscape for farmers. These economic considerations will need to be reflected in the new Farm Bill to ensure the stability and competitiveness of U.S. agriculture.
Legislative dynamics and partisan considerations
The political composition of Congress will play a pivotal role in shaping the Farm Bill. The rejection of a bipartisan plan to prevent a government shutdown in late 2024, influenced by President-elect Trump’s directives, highlights the potential for partisan challenges in passing comprehensive legislation. The Farm Bill, traditionally a product of bipartisan cooperation, may face hurdles if partisan divisions persist, affecting the timely reauthorization and implementation of agricultural policies. This concerns groups like the Farm Bureau, which is encouraging Congress to craft a bipartisan farm bill.
Here’s what the Farm Bureau said recently in a statement regarding a new Farm Bill:
“We support the following principles to guide development of programs in the next Farm Bill: Increase baseline funding commitments to farm programs; maintain a unified Farm Bill which includes nutrition programs and farm programs together; and prioritize funding for risk management tools which include both federal crop insurance and commodity programs. The Farm Bill has been a bipartisan effort in the past. The Farm Bill presents an important
opportunity for lawmakers to rise above partisanship and work together again to pass legislation that protects food security for all Americans and the future success of our farmers and ranchers.”
The status quo bipartisanship the Farm Bureau desires and argues for isn’t likely to hold this time around though because the November 2024 presidential election, which resulted in a trifecta majority for Republicans, is set to have a profound impact on the forthcoming Farm Bill. Democrats are sitting in the back benches when it comes to crafting the new Farm Bill.
When it comes to a new Farm Bill, Presidential leadership appointments suggest potential shifts in policy regarding subsidies, biofuels, and food additives.
Immigration policies may affect labor availability, necessitating adjustments in agricultural operations.
Economic strategies, including tariffs and subsidy reallocations, will influence the financial environment for farmers.
Farmers and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector should closely monitor these developments to adapt to the evolving policy landscape.
Voters wanted major change in 2024, resulting in Republican control of both houses of Congress and the presidency. President Trump and his team have clear ideas for agriculture policy – including major changes they want to see implemented in the Farm Bill. Right now he’s in the driver’s seat. Stay tuned to the crafting of a new Farm Bill.
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agrifood industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to develop their own branded food products. You can contact him at: victormartino415@gmail.com.
