Despite headlines to the contrary in the popular press over the last few years, consumers aren’t choosing plant-based meat over animal meat.
Plant-based meat accounts for only 1.4% of total meat category sales in the US, according to The Plant-Based Foods Association and the Good Food Institute, both of which are pro-plant-based meat industry groups. To put it another way, animal meat – beef, pork, chicken and the like – accounts for a whopping 98.6% of all meat sold in grocery stores in the country. Total annual meat sales in U.S. grocery stores is around $80 billion.
Additionally, sales of plant-based meat have stalled. For example, in 2018 total annual sales of plant- based meat in the US was $804 million, growing to $957 million in 2019, and to $1.4 billion in 2020. But between 2020 and the end of 2021, sales growth was flat. Total plant-based meat sales at the end of 2021 remained at $1.4 billion. Little to no sales growth is expected for 2022 either.
Sales of animal meat have also grown slightly over the last few years, which is very positive for such a huge and mature category. Ranchers get a lot of flack from a lot of people for a variety of reasons but the fact is the majority of Americans eat animal meat and like it.
So why all the hype about plant-based meat being a threat to animal meat ranchers?
First, it’s important to distinguish between the two types of plant-based meat, the traditional kind, which we used to simply call veggie burgers and the like, and the new wave of plant-based meat, best represented by the two big brands, Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods.
The latter two brands, which have received heavy investment dollars and are in most cases located in grocery store fresh meat cases, are processed food products that use synthetic biology to achieve their fake meat taste. In contrast, the traditional plant- based brands and products, which are located in grocery store frozen food departments, are either non-processed or less-processed food products; the traditional veggie burger concept.
These traditional brands, some of which have been on the market since the 1960s, never set out to disrupt animal meat, but instead present themselves as an alternative to it mainly for vegetarians and vegans, unlike the new-wave synthetic biology-based brands which have as there primary mission to appeal to flexitarians and carnivores, as well as to vegetarians and vegans, and have proclaimed as their mission is to disrupt animal meat and usher in a new era of “hoofless meat”
But the reality is that it isn’t going to happen.
For example, Beyond Meat, which is a publicly- traded company and the most famous brand name in fake meat, is struggling and could even end up in bankruptcy. Shares of Beyond Meat have lost over $6 billion dollars since March 2020, due primarily to weak sales growth.
The hype that plant-based meat is the new animal meat is based largely on the desire of those creating it for that dream to become a reality, along with excellent public relations efforts from the major plant-based meat brands, which in many instances are owned by major food companies like Tyson, Maple Leaf Foods and others that are well known for being the leading players in animal meat. Why are these meat companies also in plant-based meat? It’s all about hedging their bets.
But a number of these big food conglomerates, including Kellogg and Maple Leaf, which is one of the largest animal meat processors and marketers in North America, are pulling back from the plant-based meat space.
Earlier this year in a conference call with stock analysts, Curtis Eugene, Maple Leaf’s president, said the company’s sales of plant-based foods grew by 59% in 2019 and 75% in 2020, but were flat in 2021. This mirrors the overall data from the two plant-based meat trade associations I noted earlier.
The company is currently evaluating its entire plant-based meat portfolio and doesn’t see huge growth for either its brands or the category as a whole over the next few years.
The popular press is starting to adjust its storyline regarding the narrative it’s pushed over the last few years, which is that plant-based meat is in and animal-based meat is out.
But the best way to evaluate claims like this is always to go to the data, in this case the fact plant-based meat accounts for a mere 1.4% of total meat category sales, which means nearly 100% of meat sales belong to animals and ranchers. Total annual meat sales at grocery stores in the U.S. is about $80 billion. Plant-based meat account for $1.4 billion of that total, animal meat the rest.
Americans do and will continue to prefer their meat “off the hoof.”
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agri-food industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to sell directly to consumers or develop their own branded food products. Contact: victormartino415@gmail.com.
