America’s farmers, including in California, the nation’s leading farm state, are struggling with climate change and working hard to adapt to it.
California like the rest of the world is warming and weather patterns are becoming more erratic. Or, as Louise Ferguson a UC Davis plant physiologist recently put it, “With climate change, we’re getting more erratic [weather] entries into fall and more erratic entries into spring.”
Here in California adaptation by farmers and the allied agriculture industry to climate change is already happening in various ways. Here are some of the changes I’m seeing:
New crops
In California’s Central Valley, the leading crop-producing region in the U.S., farmers have started growing mangos and avocados, two crops not traditional to Northern California and its climate but now considered to be more suitable because of the new warmer weather pattern global warming is bringing to the region.
Farmers in California also are planting agave, which is drought-tolerant. Agave is used to make tequila, as well as becoming increasingly popular as an alternative sweetener, which is used by food-makers as a sugar and corn syrup replacement ingredient in food and beverage products, and by consumers in place of sugar in coffee and tea and for baking. Agave has traditionally been grown in Mexico but not in California – until now. Climate change-induced drought is the reason.
Additionally, some farmers including former California State Assemblyman and State Senator Mike Machado are betting olives will be a good climate change crop. Olive trees have been around in Northern California for ages but it’s never been a major crop in the Golden State. That could change though. Machado and a few other farmers in the Northern San Joaquin Valley have replaced stone fruit and nut trees with olives and plan to give the Mediterranean nations where most olives are grown a run for their money. Climate change is making the weather in the Northern San Joaquin Valley even more conducive to growing the crop than it previously has been.
Technology
One of the interesting anomalies regarding the challenges climate change is posing to farmers is the fact that so far it hasn’t reduced crop yield, which is something many experts have said is an inevitable result of global warming.
According to USDA, the U.S. saw record crop yields across the board in 2021 at 894 pounds per acre – a whopping 21% increase over the previous year. Yields were down slightly in 2022 from those record 2021 figures but still above the 2020 and historic average.
California farmers also continue to produce record crop yields overall in the aggregate.
In my analysis and observation the main reason for the continued increase in crop yields in the face of climate change is technology. In other words, the continued improvements in agricultural technology and the increased adoption of tech by farmers, has thus far served as a check on climate change, resulting in the steady march of productivity and higher crop yields that’s been the hallmark of American agriculture, particularly here in tech-heavy California.
It’s also my analysis and observation that this can’t last forever. How long it can last, in fact, is a question that researchers at USDA and research universities like UC Davis are working hard to figure out. It’s also a question on the minds of most farmers.
Changing climate that results in things like severe drought and excessive rain, which we are seeing in California, matter though. The unknown question right now is whether or not advances in science and technology can make up for these powerful natural forces.
Food prices
Americans are living with the highest food inflation since the 1970s. Much of this has to do with traditional principles of economics like supply and demand but climate change also plays a role – and unlike the traditional economic reasons, it’s going to play a more consistent long-term role in the cost of food at grocery stores and restaurants.
The cost of food has increased by around 18% over the last two years. The rate of growth has slowed considerably over the last few months but food inflation continues to persist. This is in contrast to the norm in the U.S., which since World War II has seen very modest annual increases in food prices. Historians even refer to the post World War II period as the era of cheap food in America. That era is over. Climate change is the biggest long-term reason the price of food will continue to rise, albeit at a lower percentage than we’ve seen under food inflation.
Dry farming
The most persistent pressure for California farmers is water supply. Agriculture is a huge consumer of water in the Golden State.
Over the last few years thousands of acres of cropland has been taken out of production in California. Much of this is going to be a permanent condition unless more water becomes available to farmers.
Some farmers though aren’t waiting for that to happen. Instead they are practicing the ancient art of dry farming. For example, Tristan Benson and others in Sonoma County, California are growing heirloom wheat, barley and other grains on loamy hillsides. Their farming practice requires far less irrigation water. They’re making money too, selling the grain to bread and beer-making companies and to distilleries.
Rain-watered wheat was a much more common crop in California in the past than it has been in recent times. Other farmers in the state are growing more wheat as well and in the face of drought it could become a much more significant crop in terms of yield and the market in the Golden State.
Indoor farming
More but not most farming in California will move indoors as a result of climate change.
Indoor farming, which has received billions of dollars in investment over the last decade, has many limitations. For example, mostly leafy greens and herbs are currently being produced in high-tech indoor farms. But more crops will be successfully grown indoors.
The technology is improving rapidly though and although I don’t see indoor farming becoming the dominant form of farming in California or elsewhere in the U.S. in the near future, I do see it playing an increasing role in specialty crop production because of climate change. This goes hand-in-hand with the rise of technology point above. Climate control, which can be achieved with indoor farming, is a natural response to climate change. The challenge though is crop yield. We can’t feed the state, let alone the nation with indoor farming. We can though utilize it more as part of the climate change adaptive strategies that farmers and the agriculture industry must make.
Climate change is real and it’s not going away. Most farmers are aware of this fact and are already working to adapt to it. The last couple years of weather here in California – excessive drought, followed by this year’s excessive rains – provides pretty solid evidence of the reality of climate change.
Thus far technology has enabled farmers to continue to increase yields despite the challenges of climate change. We’ve also seen much crop devastation this year due to the excessive rains.
Farmers, with the help of scientists and research institutions, are experimenting as well – trying new crops, dry farming and the like – which is essential for California agriculture and its adaptation to climate change.
I’m optimistic but we need to plan, invest, experiment and adapt, starting now. California has the human and institutional resources to do so. Climate change is the biggest challenge for farmers in most of our lifetimes.
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agrifood industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to develop their own branded food products. You can contact him at: victormartino415@gmail.com.
