One thing that’s become clear to me over the last few years is, like it or not, Mexico has become an essential supplier of fresh produce to U.S. supermarkets and consumers.
In other words, the ship has sailed over discussions and debates regarding the shutting-off of Mexican fruit and vegetable imports. The discussions and debates can continue, of course, but the reality will remain the same – the U.S. depends on and will continue to depend on Mexico to supply a significant percentage of our fresh produce needs.
There are two primary reasons Mexico is now an essential supplier of fresh produce to the U.S.
First and most significant is because consumers today demand a year-round supply of nearly every fresh fruit and vegetable imaginable in grocery stores. Seasonality, which used to be the norm when most everything available in supermarket produce departments was grown in the USA, is no longer acceptable to Americans.
In turn grocers, whose mission is to satisfy the wants and needs of consumers, fill store produce departments with fresh produce that’s available all the time, which means imports, the majority of which come from south of our border. There’s no turning back on this reality. Grocery retailing is a hyper-competitive business and satisfying consumer wants is the name of the game for retailers.
The second reason is price. Many Mexican imports sell for less at retail than U.S. grown fresh produce does, although there’s price parity on numerous like fruits and vegetables. Consumers want this choice and grocery retailers will keep giving it to them. Once again, it’s all about consumer demand.
As evidence of how important Mexico has become as a supplier of fresh produce to U.S. supermarkets and consumers, take a look at the percentage growth of these top fresh produce exports from Mexico to the U.S. over the last few years, 2016-2021, according to data from USDA:
Tomatoes: $2.38 billion, no change from 2020 and up 22% from 2016;
Bell peppers: $1.51 billion, up 16% from 2020 and up 41% from 2016;
Citrus: $686 million, up 32% from 2020 and up 58% from 2016;
Grapes: $568.5 million, up 10% from 2020 and up 43% from 2016;
Lettuce: $410 million, up 14% from 2020 and up 88% from 2016;
Onions: $382.7 million, up 11% from 2020 and up 12% from 2016;
Squash: $351.3 million, down 23% from 2020 and up 1% from 2016;
Bananas/plantains (frozen/fresh): $214.2 mil- lion, up 3% from 2020 and up 65% in 2016;
Celery: $71.9 million, up 8% from 2020 and up 178% from 2016;
Avocados: $2.78 billion, up 25% from 2020 and up 57% from 2016;
Strawberries (fresh or frozen): $1.26 billion, up 27% from 2020 and up 84% from 2016;
Eggplant: $62.2 million, down 7% from 2020 and up 17% from 2016;
Cabbage: $59.8 million, up 9% from 2020 and up 174% from 2016;
Pineapples: $41.5 million, up 16% from 2020 and up 18% from 2016;
Garlic: $30.8 million, up 28% from 2020 and up from 102% from 2016;
Okra: $12.9 million, up 2% from 2020 and up 49% from 2016.
Many of these Mexican imports will take center stage for our Christmas Day dinners, as they do daily at homes and in restaurants throughout the country.
In terms of consumer demand for a wide variety of fresh produce available year-round, it isn’t going away. In fact, it’s only going to increase because Americans, particularly and younger consumers, consider it the norm; one of the rights of being an American.
Retailers will continue to meet this consumer demand, buying and merchandising produce from Mexico and elsewhere because their business model and mission is to satisfy the needs and wants of their customers.
The ship has also sailed in terms of the federal government putting any sort of permanent restriction on Mexican imports. Consumer wants translate into votes and elected officials have as their primary mission to remain in office.
If the federal government should address anything, it should be the price difference between imported Mexican fruits and vegetables and domestic-grown varieties when the two directly compete against each other.
Addressing this though isn’t an easy task and presents an entirely new set of problems and issues, which in my view politicians aren’t interested in dealing with.
Evidence of this was President Trump’s “reform” of NAFTA, which did little to nothing to change the status quo of Mexican imports, largely for the reasons I describe – consumer demand and the billions of dollars in commerce in the U.S. that are derived by the importation of fruits and vegetables from Mexico.
The good news though is with very few exceptions, fresh produce grown in California and elsewhere in the west continues to have high consumer demand and is featured prominently in supermarket produce departments throughout the country.
For example, recent times have been good for California avocado growers. In 2020 growers were getting about $1.15 per-pound for their conventionally-grown fruit. A year later in 2021, growers were able to command $2.25 for the same pound of avocados, a near 100 percent increase. By mid-June of this year, California avocado growers were getting paid an all-time high of $2.66 per-pound for the fruit (over $3 per-pound for organic avocados) and couldn’t get their product to market fast enough. That’s consumer demand and the response to that demand from grocery retailers to get what people want to buy into their stores as fast as possible.
Similarly, California-grown almonds, walnuts and pistachios continue to be in high demand, as do lettuce and other leafy greens grown in California and elsewhere in the west, along with numerous other fruits and vegetables. In other words, based on my research and analysis, the big rise in Mexican imports hasn’t hurt consumer demand and sales of domestic-grown produce overall.
Over the last two decades consumer demand for fresh produce over frozen or canned has zoomed. Continued expansion of the fresh produce market in the U.S. will continue to offer great opportunities for USA-grown produce as well as imports from Mexico. It’s not a zero-sum game.
My Job Depends on Ag Magazine columnist and contributing editor Victor Martino is an agrifood industry consultant, entrepreneur and writer. One of his passions and current projects is working with farmers who want to develop their own branded food products. You can contact him at: victormartino415@gmail.com.
